Astral Codex Ten Podcast
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Astral Codex Ten Podcast
The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It's just me reading Scott Alexander's blog posts.
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Shameless Guesses, Not Hallucinations
I hate the term "hallucinations" for when AIs say false things. It's perfectly calculated to mislead the reader - to make them think AIs are crazy, or...
Last Rights
Everyone hates Congress. That poll showing that cockroaches are more popular than Congress is now thirteen years old, and things haven't improved in...
SEIU Delenda Est
California lets interest groups propose measures for the state ballot. Anyone who gathers enough signatures (currently 874,641) can put their hare-bra...
Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day
On Friday, the Pentagon declared AI company Anthropic a "supply chain risk", a designation never before given to an American company. This unprecedent...
"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Last Friday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared AI company Anthropic a "supply chain risk", the first time this designation has ever been applied...
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species
I.
In The Argument, Kelsey Piper gives a good description of the ways that AIs are more than just "next-token predictors" or "stochastic parrot...
The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic
Here's my understanding of the situation:
Anthropic signed a contract with the Pentagon last summer. It originally said the Pentagon had to foll...
Malicious Streetlight Effects Vs. "Directional Correctness" - A Semi-Non-Apology
Malicious streetlights are an evil trick from Dark Data Journalism. Some annoying enemy has a valid complaint. So you use FACTS and LOGIC to prove tha...
Book Review Contest Rules 2026
It's that time again. Even numbered years are book reviews, odd-numbered years are non-book reviews, so you're limited to books for now.
Write a...
Crime As Proxy For Disorder
The problem: people hate crime and think it's going up. But actually, crime barely affects most people and is historically low. So what's going on?
Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care
Last year, the US may have recorded the lowest murder rate in its 250 year history. Other crimes have poorer historical data, but are at least at ~50...
What Happened With Bio Anchors?
[Original post: Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work]
I.
Ajeya Cotra's Biological Anchors report was the landmark AI...
Political Backflow From Europe
The European discourse can be - for lack of a better term - America-brained. We hear stories of Black Lives Matter marches in countries without signif...
Links For February 2026
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links...
Moltbook: After The First Weekend
[previous post: Best Of Moltbook]
From the human side of the discussion:
As the AIs would say, "You've cut right to the heart of this issu...
Best Of Moltbook
Moltbook is "a social network for AI agents", although "humans [are] welcome to observe".
The backstory: a few months ago, Anthropic released Cl...
Slightly Against The "Other People's Money" Argument Against Aid
In the comments to last year's USAID post, Fabian said:
While i am happy for the existence of charity organisations, i don't get why people ins...
Highlights From The Comments On Scott Adams
[original post: The Dilbert Afterlife]
Table of Contents:
1: Should I Have Written This At All?
2: Was I Unfair To Adams?
3:...
The Dilbert Afterlife
Thanks to everyone who sent in condolences on my recent death from prostate cancer at age 68, but that was Scott Adams. I (Scott Alexander) am still a...
Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls
Isn't "may you get exactly what you asked for" one of those ancient Chinese curses?
Since we last spoke, prediction markets have gone to the moo...
SOTA On Bay Area House Party
[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]
Every city parties for its own reasons. New Yorkers party to flaunt their wealth. Angelen...
The Permanent Emergency
One morning around 6, the police banged on our door. "OPEN UP!" they shouted, the way police shout when they definitely have an alternative in mind fo...
Highlights From The Comments On Boomers
[original post: Against Against Boomers]
Before getting started:
First, I wish I'd been more careful to differentiate the following claims...
You Have Only X Years To Escape Permanent Moon Ownership
If you're not familiar with "X years to escape the permanent underclass", see the New Yorker here, or the Laine, Bear, and Trammell/Dwarkesh articl...
Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession
[Original post: Vibecession - Much More Than You Wanted To Know]
Table of Contents
1: When was the vibecession?
2: Is the vibecess...
ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026
This year's prediction contest is live on Metaculus. They write:
This year's contest draws directly from that community, with all questions sugg...
Against Against Boomers
Hating Boomers is the new cool thing. Amazon offerings include A Generation Of Sociopaths: How The Baby Boomers Betrayed America, the two apparently...
The Pledge
This holiday season, you'll see many charity fundraisers. I've already mentioned three, and I have another lined up for next week's open thread. Many...
Links For December 2025
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links...
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
The term "vibecession" most strictly refers to a period 2023 - 2024 when economic indicators were up, but consumer sentiment ("vibes") was down. But o...
The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate
…the bad news is that they can't agree which one.
I explained the debate more here, but the short version is: twin studies find that most trait...
Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China
If we worry too much about AI safety, will this make us "lose the race with China"1?
(here "AI safety" means long-term concerns about alignment...
The New AI Consciousness Paper
Most discourse on AI is low-quality. Most discourse on consciousness is super-abysmal-double-low quality. Multiply these - or maybe raise one to the e...
Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest
ACX has been co-running a forecasting contest with Metaculus for the past few years. Lately the "co-running" has drifted towards them doing all the wo...
What Happened To SF Homelessness?
Last year, I wrote that it would be very hard to decrease the number of mentally ill homeless people in San Francisco. Commenters argued that no, it...
In What Sense Is Life Suffering?
"Life is suffering" may be a Noble Truth, but it feels like a deepity. Yes, obviously life includes suffering. But it also includes happiness. Many p...
The Bloomer's Paradox
In Jason Pargin's I'm Starting To Worry About This Black Box Of Doom, a manic pixie dream girl cajoles a shut-in incel loser to drive her and her mys...
Writing For The AIs
"Writing for AI" means different things to different people, but seems to center around:
Going through these in order:
https://www.astralc...
Links For October 2025
[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links...
Model City Monday 10/27/25
The Bahamas is an archipelago-nation of 400,000 people scattered across 3,000 small islands.
The Bahamas' most populous island is the one with i...